Blogging about the Jays game reminded me that I should say a few words about my ’07 AL fantasy team. Quite bluntly, I’m not happy with my team. The reason has more to do with the fact that I went completely against my auction strategy and ended up with a roster of players I would’ve liked to have avoided.
I am adverse to risk when there is no reward. What that relates to is if you are going to pick up a player that is risky because of youth (could be sent down to the minors) or is injury prone or coming off an injury year, then you need to offset that risk with the potential reward you could reap compared with the discount you paid for that person at auction. Then, you need to be able to take your savings and apply it to solid consistent players to round out the team.
Well, I took on some serious injury risk with Harden, Dotel, Bobby Crosby. All with massive upside so not too bad although Harden wasn’t purchased at a discount. I also took on youth risk in German, Marte and Bartlett so my infield is now at the extreme risk level. with only Vidro, Tejada and Overbay considered solid risk free (and yet good return) players. Another youth risk in the OF with Coco Crisp and Elijah Dukes.
So, a lot of risk to absorb. By itself this is a little more than I’m comfortable with but nonetheless could have serious rewards. The problem is that it will be tough for the remainder of my team to pick up the slack particularly in offense. During the auction I was trying to for a 170/90 split offense/pitching especially since I was keeping Weaver for $5 this year (another youthful risk but for a small amount). My history of teams indicates I’m always way to weak on hitting and far too strong on pitching wasting too much money to overkill on stats like wins, ERA and WHIP. I was adament that I would go in paying for the big hitters and then peppering with big upside youth.
A debacle. I was thrown off by a conflict: in order to get the big names you’ve got to pay up front which leaves you less bargaining power down the road when the pickings get slim. In the past I’ve paid for big names only to see good players go cheap later on. This time I was intimidated by the early prices and missed out on some good discounts. I detected but did not react accordingly to the conservatitve bidding by the other owners early on. Missed out on some talent. And granted I had the most money later in the rounds, it’s not as fun to have when you haven’t built your foundation. You can pick up anyone you want but there’s nobody out there other than flyers and upsiders.
The killer was that when I did pick up some big names on offense it went against my rule of picking up proven youth and prime players in good batting positions. I ended up blowing my big bucks on Tejada, Ramirez, Rios and Overbay. I’m not too disappointed with this except for Manny at $30. I could’ve spent $6 more and bought out Crawford, a 40/40 player 26 years old as opposed to a former 40/40 type player at age 35.  This could all still pan out but again it comes back to risk/reward. I have so many risky players that I needed to offset it with more solid talent.
Another personal rule I neglected to follow was to spend next to nothing on catching. This position results in far fewer at bats due to wear and tear. A dollar saved here is better used elsewhere. I.e. you can upgrade a Manny to a Teixeria for example with a couple of bucks avoided in C. Stupid me: I picked up Ivan Rodriguez for a gaudy price of $15 – more than I’ve spent combined on catching in my 6 years of fantasy baseball. The price was cheaper than projected so I just couldn’t pass it up. Now I’m tied to the fate of a great offensive catcher who is unfortunately 37 years old.
Speaking of age, yet another blunder: I picked up Sosa (39) and Brad Wilkerson (30) to fill out my OF. Old age is something to avoid. These guys are proven players but known entities. There is no upside to them unless you can get them cheap which fortunately I did. But again here is some added risk that is just unneeded.
On the pitching side things are much better….although I had to spend 100 to get it which was more than the 90 I had set out for. This overspending came about because of one pitcher: John Lackey. But I’m not disappointed because he is already being involved in some trade talks that could help me improve my offensive situation. I have a great starting rotation: Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Rich Harden, John Lackey and Jeff Karstens. All on great teams, in great ballparks and with great stuff on their pitches. I’m also pleased with my remaining pen: Duchscherer and Frasor as setup men (Frasor has already paid off and been promoted to closer while BJ Ryan is injured) and Dotel and Jones as closer. Jones is old but is proven which is good to have in the closer role. Dotel was a risk that hasn’t yet paid off because he is injured but could pay off well down the road. I have closers on the cheap which may play out better than in the past when I’ve paid 1/3 of my pitching salary for Joe Nathan.
So offense is weak but pitching is strong (with risk in Harden and Dotel). I need to be clever with my trading and I can probably offset some of the risk I acquired.
For next year I need to really remember:
Avoid old age
Build a solid proven foundation. Be prepared to pay the price. Just be sure it’s on the right players: 27 year olds and prime players. Be certain their job is secure and are in a good spot in the lineup
Be sure the risk has upside. Or else be sure you paid cheap for the risk.
Don’t save your money at the expense of missing out early on guys going for or less than the amount you have in your notes. Having the power at the end may backfire if you don’t have the foundation in place. This leads to a lot of risk that is tough to mitigate.
Go in with a plan and stick to it. Thus, make the plan as general as possible to absorb the nuances that go on in a draft. For example, this year, I knew that 2B and 3B was weak. These players went quick. I needed to jump on my ‘tier’ strategy (placing players into levels of quality per position) and get a top tier player in these positions before they were gone.
Here’s a really good idea that I should have employed. It was used by others and I got burned hard on it. I had my eyes set on Jon Lester an excellent prospect that is in the minors and should likely play in Boston by June. I was planning to pick him up in the free reserve draft. That opportunity was missed when somebody picked him up for $1 in the late rounds, well after I had drafted my pitchers. I should have bypassed Karstens and sought out Lester. A keeper potential to boot.
A final point: in the reserve draft I picked up Ben Broussard who is a player that is backing up 1st base in Seattle. I should have passed him and picked up one of many prospects I had on paper: Matt Garza, Brandon Wood, Adam Lind. I had this mindset that since these guys aren’t going to be playing for a while why pick them up? I should have instead thought: pick these guys up and move them to your minor reserve in the next trading period and pick up another player in his place after knowing more about who’s playing and who’s not in the upcoming weeks. What an opportunity wasted. I’ve been scouting the minor leagues and by now all the big prospects are scooped up. Ouch!
Conclusion: although this year has potential I am considering it a wash. But I did learn a lot to avoid these mistakes in the future. I expect next year to be much better.