A Christmas Miracle

By | December 26, 2006

Warning! This blog is quite long and full of sports nonsense.

That being said, if you are interested in learning what a ‘Fantasy’ sports league is all about, how obsessed one needs to be to play successfully in one, and an understanding of what has been absorbing my life (beyond family of course) the past 4 months I suggest you read on.

List night, a Christmas miracle happened: I became the MMQB 2006 Fantasy Football Champion!Here is a snapshot of the final scoreboard.

The snap shows that there are still 10 seconds left in the Jets/Dolphins game but the outcome was decided.

What is MMQB?

MMQB is a Fantasy football league that consists of 12 ‘owners’ who have drafted and built a team of real NFL players, fullfilling the positional requirements set out by the league rules. I.e. each week you must field one QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, a kicker and a defensive team. The goal is to field a team each week in an attempt to gain as many fantasy points possible. Your team consists of the above mentioned set of ‘active’ players plus a set of reserve players whose points will not count towards your totals while they are reserved. This allows you to adjust your roster on a week-by-week basis and choose which players you want to have in play for the upcoming NFL matches. Example: If you have additional RBs in reserve you may want to swap him into your active squad on a certain week because one of your current RBs is injured, or his team is on bye week or you want to play a matchup where the reserve RB is up against a weak opponent.

On top of all this manouevring you have the ability to add/drop players due to pick-ups in free agency (players not owned by any other owner) or via trades with other owners.

This league is a ‘heads-up’ league where each week for the 1st 13 NFL weeks you are matched up against another owner and you defeat your opponent by having your active players accumulate more total points than the other’s players. Points are accumulated according to league rules. For example, a QB accumulates points by throwing a touchdown (4 pts) and by passing yds (.1 pts for every 3 yds up to 200 yds followed by .1 pts for every yd over 200). Another example: An RB will accumulate points by rushing for a TD (5 pts), catching for a TD (4 pts) and by rushing/receiving yds (similar to the QB point accumulation). The WR, etc. have a similar type of accumulation strategy. The Defense is slightly different: You ‘own’ an NFL team’s entire defense and you accumulate points by having that team’s defense limit their opponent in yardage and score coupled with the number of sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and defensive TDs. The point totals on defense can vary from in the negatives to up to 30 or more points. Fantasy team totals on any give week can range from mid-teens to up to 100 points or more. On average, a total in the 60’s or 70’s has a good chance of winning on any given week.

After 13 weeks if you place in the top 4 teams in wins you advance to the playoffs where you are seeded accordingly and then play sudden death matches. I.e. week 14 of the NFL schedule begins our fantasy playoff schedule. If you win you move on to week 15 and then again to week 16 for the fantasy ‘SuperBowl’. The reason for ending our schedule before the NFL season ends is to avoid the dreaded week 17 where many teams with guaranteed playoff spots will sit out their stars which would taint the fantasy matchups.

So how is this complex scoring and league management kept accurrate and problem free? We use a website managed by CBS to record our team rosters, player moves, scoring, etc. etc. The snapshot above is of the realtime scoreboard where you can track your team’s progress as the games are being played out. Very, very cool. I have this screen up every week while I surf through the games on TV to stay informed of my team’s progress. Not that there’s anything I can do rosterwise once the games start, but this is where all the fun is. Watching the success or failure of your team in realtime.

How I entered the league

I’ve been a Baseball Fantasy league player for over 5 yrs now. It’s a Rotisserie league made up of owners from the Toronto-KW area. From April to October my time is absorbed in baseball.

There is a colleague and friend at work named Pat that noticed my involvement and success in the league so he mentioned that his Football league had a current owner looking to move out of the league. He wondered if I would like to inherit that person’s team. Although I am a huge football fan and know a thing or two about the NFL, I was hesitant to join a fantasy league that is also a keeper league – a league where the team you own is yours for the life of the league. You keep your team from year to year and it is your job to keep it competitive through drafting and trading. It is much more involved than a standard league where you draft a new team each year….you get to start fresh each season. That league is more dependant on your ability to draft for value. A keeper league requires you to live with your mistakes and through the bad and good times. If you have a bad team, you’ll need to spend a few years drafting wisely and living through some tough times.

I accepted the offer nonetheless. And fortunately, I inherited the 2005 championship team. Now, this is a little misleading since the team finished its regular season 7-6. It was with a string of good fortune that the team strung some wins together in the playoffs.

Last year’s championship did not buy me anything beneficial for 2006. In fact, it placed me at the bottom of the draft coming into the season. However, with some great talent coming out of the college ranks, it was in my best interest to make myself eligible for a 1st round draft pick.

Rebuilding the team

When I got my first look at my team, it was apparent to me that I inherited a team on the down-turn. That is, I had a lot of veterans in key positions that were on the declining side of their career. I needed some fresh talent in many categories. But most importantly, I needed talent in what I deemed to be the single most important position: running back. I had 4 running backs: Steven Jackson, Kevan Barlow, TJ Duckett and Duce Staley. Duckett and Barlow were traded to teams that would make them non-focal RBs. Staley was an old washed up runner. I was fairly strong in wide receiver so I figured a trade was in order.

After shopping around and figuring out most of the owners are not realists, I managed to pull off a great trade with Pat, who is a realist (there are a couple other in the league). I traded away Tory Holt, a premiere Fantasy WR, for Rudi Johnson who is a top 5 RB who plays on a great team with huge potential to score points. Holt is in the latter stages of his career but is still very good and will be for a few more years. Rudi is young and will be useful for a bit longer. The key is that this trade rounded out my team such that I had a proven starting RB in Johnson, a potential stud RB with Steven Jackson and still have a good core of WRs: Keyshawn Johnson, Joey Galloway and Hines Ward (last years Superbowl MVP).

Now it was clear to me what I needed to do: draft a future QB and some future WRs. To do this successfully I would need to be able to take advantage of all 4 draft picks allowed. So, I needed to drop 4 players from my roster to do so (league rules). That was not an issue for me as I had 2 players that were retired, and bum in Staley and a garbage quarterback in Chad Pennington. Honestly, I inherited a team that was on the verge of destruction.

Through fortune and timing I was able to do very well in the draft, even though I was not present and only provided a list. I was able to pull off getting Vince Young a mobile Donovan McNabb type player along with 2 high draft pick WRs in Greg Jennings and Santonio Holmes. I felt this was a good win for me in that I had my future shored up in these positions for a long time. Plus, Vince Young was somebody that I could maybe use today. Given I only had Jake Plummer and a poor backup in Aaron Brooks I could use the help. Let the season begin!

The regular season

I knew I had a team that wasn’t going to blow anyone out of the water and that proved to be the case. Going into matches I think I was favoured only about 50% of the time. Fortunately I was in a division that was weak so a .500 record I figured was going to be enough.

I started off slow losing the 1st week and then splitting the next few to eventually end up 4-3. I was pretty pleased with that. I had no injuries, but I also didn’t have any player that was shouldering the load. Thus, I needed all my guys to produce in some fashion to get a win. I didn’t have that Ladian Tomlinson type guy who could get enough points in a week to outscore entire teams. Fortunately I had a well rounded team that I thought was still in the under-performing stage.

The next phase of the season introduces the bye week situations. Now there are players on the roster that won’t play on certain week because their team is off. This requires substituting in your non-regulars and hoping they perform or that you can make up the numbers in some way. I did exceptionally well during this phase and considered the bye week to be a strength for me. I felt I had the analytical ability to absorb my losses to roster better than my opponent and it proved true. I went 3-0 over the bye week portion to go 7-3. Key moves I made were the pickups of Chris Cooley at TE (who I regrettably dropped later in the season), the pickup of the Giants defense and the pickup of old man Morten Anderson when my K was on bye. In addition to these moves, I was able to sub in my rookies who stepped up to the plate and gave me some key points. In particular Vince Young pulled off some big wins and started to look like a legitimate superstar only a few weeks into his NFL career. Enough so that I had thoughts of dumping my ‘best’ QB Jake Plummer.

Along with the good moves I did make one bad move: I had picked up Ahman Green a great RB, but opted to drop him and pick up veteran QB Trent Green who was injured but would come into play in the remaining weeks. I had hopes of him helping me in the playoffs.

For it was the playoffs I was bound. With 3 weeks remaining, due to key wins I was already assured at least second place in the division. Which was good because I had a tough remaining schedule playing the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place teams in the league.

I lost all three games but that wasn’t what concerned me (I had already conceded 1st place in division to the powerhouse Birdhawks). What was concerning me were key losses to my squad: I lost my starting TE and I lost my starting QB Jake Plummer due to a coaching decision Denver made to start their new rookie QB. So I had to find a TE to fill the gap and hope Trent Green would be good to go. I didn’t have enough faith in Vince Young at this stage—–which you’ll see later might have been the single largest mistake I made that very nearly cost me the title!

But the good news was I was playoff bound against a team I had split the regular season 1-1.

The playoffs

Going into the playoffs it was apparent I was underdog. For all 3 playoff games I would end up being the heavy underdog. Coupled with what I thought were very difficult matchups for my key players I figured I had no chance.

The 1st playoff game turned out to be a ho-hummer. I won this match by over 20 points. There were three reasons for this: Vince Young, Steven Jackson and Rudi Johnson. Vince had is ‘coming out’ game against Houston racking up 20 points. Rudi was doing what Rudi does late in the season, and Steven Jackson was proving that he will become one of the biggest Fantasy studs for the next several years. These 3 players alone were enough to destroy my opponent whose players did not show up to play that week.

It also looked like fate was going to play its hand in my favour. The heavy, huge favourite in my division was upset in the first round by the 4th place team. Unbelievable. This opened a door that I thought was closed. The favourite had the largest point total and had been cremating his opponents all season. Including a 30 point thrashing of my team just 2 weeks earlier. This set up a match against a team that I had defeating twice already in regular season matchups. Looking at his team I could see it boil down to one thing: Michael Vick. As Vick went, so went his team.

Well, Vick stunk up the joint the following week and the continued surgence of Steven Jackson along with a remarkable last minute pick-up and insertion of the Packers defence were enough to take this win. Using the Packers over my regular defence the Eagles raised a lot of eye-brows in the league but what a pay-off. My Eagles were in tough against the Giants and I just couldn’t see them getting many points. But the Packers were up against the Lions who downright suck. It payed off with 19 huge points. I’ll never forget this week. I was in agony with the stomack flu but had JUST enough energy to keep one eye open watching the key games between throw-ups.

So the finas were set. And fate again plays a hand. The heavy favourite in the other division, my friend Pat, was upset by Prilesnik Power – yet another team I had defeated early in the season. Early enough that I was playing a completely different team. The ‘new’ Power was bigger meaner and better. They had the Ravens defence, the #1 Fantasy QB in Drew Brees and some powerhouse RBs in Tiki Barber and Frank Gore.

I on the other hand had some tough matchups ahead and some big decisions to make as to which players to play: notably which defense (Packers or Eagles), which RB (Ladell Betts the new powerhouse for the Redskins or Old Reliable Rudi) and which QB (the Young phenom or the veteran Trent Green). It turns out my decisions were fatal in all cases and very nearly cost me the title. A situation that would have plagued me for the rest of my life were it to actually have happened.

The Finals

There’s something bittersweet about having a team where you have a good set of reserves. Couple that with what appear to be difficult matchups with your regulars and you have a recipe for agonizing decision-making. For 3 days I poured over the numbers and stats to figure out if I should play the Eagles or the Packers, Trent Green or Vince Young, Rudi Johnson or Ladell Betts. Fortunately I didn’t have to commit to all three at once. I did however need to decide about playing the Packers by Thursday night since they were playing that evening.

I opted to play the Packers in the end. Why? Because the Vikings are not a great offensive threat and they were starting a fresh new QB in Tavaris Jackson. Now, Tavaris Jackson is going to be good some day, but I didn’t think it was going to be Thursday night. Conversely, the Eagles were up against the Cowboys on Christmas day in Dallas. Not a good recipe….or so I thought.

As it turned out, the Packers gave me 13 points which is a better than average total. My opponent countered with his kicker giving him 9 points. 13-9 after the opening game.

I had 2 days to stew over which QB to play. It was either Green or Young. Green was up against Oakland on Saturday night so I had to decide sooner than later. I opted for Green because he’s the veteran, KC needed the win and they were up against Oakland. Even though they were #1 against the pass I thought it would still be a good scoring night for Green. I was dead wrong. By the end of the night he accumulated a decent 5.9 points but that it wasn’t what I thought I needed considering the big decision I had made. Power had countered with 4.7 from his TE which gave me a lean 5.2 lead going into Sundays big games. I was done with my Defense and QB while he had pretty much matched me with his kicker and TE. Not looking good for me. At this point I had regretted my selections and was pretty much resigned to defeat.

Sunday morning brought about yet one more decision I needed to make. Do I play Rudi against a tough Denver team in Denver and in the snow? The critics were saying play him no matter what. However, I had a great RB in reserve with Ladell Betts going up against the 2nd worst D in the league. The critics were also saying to play him! My instinct was to play the matchup with Betts but it seemed unusual to do so. If I played him I would have both Jackson and Betts playing in the same game, albeit against each other. My thinking was if one RB dominated the game it would be at the expense of the other. Boy, would I be wrong on that count. It turned out Jackson dominated with 20 points and Betts had 17.5 points to match. I should have played Betts but I didn’t. I opted for Rudi. Due to the timing of games, I had to struggle through the great numbers of Betts at the 1:00 games before I got to watch Rudi go at 4:00. I agonized over Betts gaining 17 of his points in the 1st half while Jackson had only 3 points by then. At this stage, I was down by 15 pts, my superstar not gaining anything and my decision looking bad. With thous 17 pts from Betts I would still be ahead. Who knows what Rudi would do later in the day? I was upset to say the least.

It was looking grim and I was about to turn it in. Every time I would pull within 5 pts, the Power would pull away and regain that 10-15 point lead. Touchdown passes from Drew Brees or sacks by his Baltimore defence would continue to keep him ahead of the game. With most of the early games done and down by 11 I thought I was done. There was only one early game left with time to play and it was the Ladell Betts vs. Steven Jackson game.

Then, things got better. Steven Jackson took a 5 yd reception and ran 40 yds for a reception TD. With 4 pts at the half, all of a sudden he starts to pour on the points with minutes left to play. Add 5 points to my score (4 for the TD, .5 for the catch and .5 for the yds) and now I’m down by 6. Better yet, the game is tied. Some back and forth in the game which leads to a couple more pts from Jackson and we’re in OT for that game and I’m only down by 4. The Rams win the coin flip in OT and Jackson takes over. More yds pulls me within 2. And then, the Christmas Miracle happens. From 35yds out, Jackson takes a hand-off for an innocent run up the middle. Instead he bumps it outside and then proceeds to jet his way into the endzone. Count my 5 pts plus .7 for yds and all of a sudden I’m in the lead by 3.7 pts!! Jackson pulls off 17 pts in the second half and single-handedly catapults me into the lead!

Now things are looking a little better. I have Rudi now playing and my excellent kicker in play. He has Frank Gore, the rookie phenom RB from San Fran. Things pick up for me. Rudi runs in a TD and Ackers (my K) starts booting field goals. By the time we’re 1 hr into the second set of games I have a 14 pt lead! Rudi’ s given me 10 pts and Ackers has 3 FGs.

By the time I have to leave for Christmas service, Rudi has 10.3 pts and Ackers has an amazing 14 pts! I have a 14 pt lead but his rookie Gore is on fire….accumulating points like never before.

All through the service I am in turmoil wondering what’s happening. Thinking the worst, I have this feeling I’ve been caught and it’s over. I have no players left after 4:00 games but he still has one to go on Monday night. I need to have some sort of lead to have a chance.

After the longest car ride home ever – next to the puke infested car ride the previous week – I raced to the scoreboard to see that I still had the lead, but it wasn’t as big as I had hoped. Both Rudi and Ackers did inwere unable to accumulate anything more, but Gore was able to chew away at the lead. All said and done I was 8.5 pts ahead with my opponent having a very good WR yet to play on Monday night. I was ticked, annoyed and dismayed. If I had only made one right decision with my substitutions so far it would not be an issue: play Young and I’d be up by 23 pts. Play Betts and I’d by up by 16 pts. Both leads virtually unreachable by one WR. Instead it was a lead that could be overcome. A WR can get 8.5 in many achievable number of ways: 9 receptions and about 100 yds would do it. A TD reception and some extra yds and receptions. Basically: a good, not even great night by the WR and I’m beat.

The irony of it is: the game would be played on Christmas night. The WR plays for one of my most hated teams: the NY Jets. Loser team, spoiler team, despised team. And as fate would have it, the team they were up against was the one, the only, the greatest franchise in NFL history: The Miami Dolphins. Those who know me will know this fact: I am a very HUGE fan of the Dolphins. My Fantasy championship rested on the ability of my TEAM to stifle this WR. My Team, My Dolphins. I couldn’t ask for anything more.

The Final Game

Christmas Day was a mixed bag. I shouldn’t let this one game, this one player distract me from a holiday. So I didn’t. I know my priorities. Nothing is more important than family. So thankfully I was able to push aside my anxiety and enjoy my Christmas with family and friends.

But, as 5:00 came around and the Eagles/Cowboys game came on the air, it was go time. 3 1/2 hrs until kick-off of the big Jets/Dolphins matchup.

It turns out the Eagles/Cowboys game increases my concern that I’m destined to lose. The Eagles defense accumulate 16 pts in the game. If you recall, I played the Packers who amounted what appeared to have been a respectable 13 pts. In hindsight, I really wished I had played the Eagles D. That extra 3 points would have put me up by 11.5 which is a much more comfortable lead. His WR, Jerrico Cotchery, could score 2 TDs (which is a remarkable night for a WR) and I could still pull off the victory. Instead, I’m looking at 3 mistakes made, each one more costly than the other.

Bonus: the game starts and I can see that the weather in Miami is bad. Very bad. Pouring rain. Not good for passing. Still, Pennington (who I dropped earlier this year) still decides to target Cotchery as his primary receiver….even though he is a no good rookie with no history of success. How annoying. By half time he’s gained about 2.5 of the 8.5 pts needed to catch me. I’m only 6 pts ahead by half time. I’m very pleased, but the score is 0-0, Cotchery is the primary receiver, and there’s still 30 minutes to go.

Sonia gave me a 1984 Dan Marino replica jersey for Christmas. It was time to don the shirt and channel the fortunes of #13, the greatest QB of all time. It seemed to work. Cotchery was not a factor for the 3rd quarter. By the end of Q3, the score is 7-3 Miami. Good, but not great. Down 7-3 I knew that the passing game was going to come into play for the Jets. Cotchery was going to be a factor.

As luck would have it, nothing goes his way and we’re sitting with 8 minutes to go. The Jets are charging and at midfield. 1st down is a busted run. 2nd down is an ALMOST interception by the Fish. I am in agony. This drive should be over by now. I sense the worst. And the worst happens. 3rd and 10: Pennington narrowly avoids a sack. He launches the ball down the middle of the field, a location I know Cotchery was lined up to be in. And it happens, a great catch by #89 on the 5 and a stumble into the endzone. After 10 minutes of replay review the play stands: a TD by Jerrico Cotchery with 6:30 left to play. The unbelievable is happening. The Power has pulled within 0.7 points with tonnes of time on the clock. 0.7 is a negligable amount. Review: a reception counts for 0.5 plus .1 for every 3 yds gained. If Cotchery makes one more reception for 6 or more yds I’m screwed. Now it’s time to run through my mind what scenarios need to happen such that Cotchery will not have a chance at another reception.

Well, what I don’t want to have happen is Miami, the team I love :and cherish, to come back from this 10-7 deficit. Things look good early on: a three and out has Miami punting with 5:00 minutes to go. The kick puts the ball down to the Jets 40 yd line. With 5:00 to go, it is inevitable to me that Cotchery will get 1 more reception. The white towel is in my hand and about to be thrown.

Then, the Christmas Miracle continued: the punt bounces backwards and nicks the elbow of one of the receiving team players. Miami jumps on the ball!! Now they: have possession on the Jets 40 with 5:00 to go. Hope is not lost.

Well, hope is not lost for 3:00 minutes. Within that time period, the Dolphins were able to tie the game 10-10. What world do we live in where one has to cheer against his beloved team to miss a field goal? To lose a game? That’s just wrong….but that’s what I was reduced to. If Miami had missed that field goal, the Jets would surely have taken a knee to end the game. Instead, it’s tied, the Jets need to charge down the field while preserving the clock in a game they MUST win to advance into the playoffs. This is a guaranteed recipe for lots of passes. Lots of potential for Cotchery to get the 0.7 needed to dash my hopes. I could sense my opponent’s hopes rising. His confidence building that he was going to upset me in the 11th hr. I was not happy knowing this. I was sick to my stomach. My wife stared at me from the furthest corner as I writhed around and wringed my hands in nervous twitchy anxst. It would have been a YouTube embarrassment had there been a hidden camera.

The Jets received the punt as a watched the TV screen between the gaps in my fingers. 1st and 10 and the 30. 2:00 to go. I’m doomed. The snap: Pennington drops back and surveys the field. He looks to his #1 option Cotchery……and opts not to throw. God bless the Miami secondary! Instead, he dumps it to Leon Washington his RB outlet who is 3 yds down the field. Then, the Christmas Miracle comes to a close: Washington jukes his way down the field avoiding tackles: to the 50, the 40, the 30, the 20….and down at the 19! Quickly, my mind is thinking: is this good or bad? What does this mean in terms of potential receptions? Well, I’ll tell you what it means. The Jets are in field goal range with 1:45 to go. There is no way in hell that they are going to pass the ball when they are well within field goal range. This fact dawns upon me and I look over to Sonia with a childish grin. Like a young boy on Christmas morn. “It’s over!” I say. “Are you sure?” she asks. “I am sure” I say and then focus on the TV in anticipation of 3 consecutive, highly conservative runs. And it happens as expected. The only thing left is a 32 yd field goal to take the lead and run out the clock. Again, unholy like, I cheer on the Jets as they kick it straight down the middle and take the ultimate lead over my beloved, cherished Dolphins. Probably the most nerve-wracking NON-Dolphin field goal ever.

So, it’s over. I win the championship by a slim 0.7 margin. Too slim to comprehend.

Reflections

After savouring the moment I begin to reflect: what if it had gone the other way? It is too horrendous to imagine. I am not the type of person who can easily let something like that blow over quickly. I cringe to imagine how difficult it would be to live with after such an event. Sonia would rightly be at wits end with the cloud that I would hang over myself. And I wonder: is it worth it in the end? I didn’t win anything. I really have nothing to show for it. It has absorbed a lot of my spare time. 0.7 pts separates me from continuing to live my normal life or sinking into short-term depression. What’s the point?

I feel some sympathy for my opponent who is probably agonizing over the mistakes he made and upset that he came so close. He has been in this league for 8 or so years now and was the heavy sentimental favourite. He probably deserved it more than me.

But maybe that is the point. I love to compete and being the underdog, the ‘enemy’ is what the point is all about. To defeat somebody no matter what it is, as long as it’s fair and in honest competition, that is what it is all about. I love the competition and that is why I’ll continue to play. And to take a team that is on decline, rebuild it and take it to another championship is a very very sweet thing. It may seem trivial to many, but it means something to me.

Back to the game: what’s next? Well, there’s a little time to sit on my laurels but soon enough it’s back to scouting. I have built a team that is primed for the future but I do need to do some tweaking. My QB position is in great shape with Vince Young but I need to get some backup in there just in case. I also need another RB for injury insurance. Although I’ll have last draft pick again, I’m confident that I can work some strategies and do well in the draft or somehow pull off that trade. My expectation is that I will be able to pull off the 3-peat! With Rudi, Steven Jackson and Vince Young I have a foundation for several years to come!

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